By Howard Cooper — 
As the clock struck midnight on January 1, 2026, one unusual wager on the prediction market Polymarket was decisively settled: Jesus Christ did not return to Earth in 2025.
Most believers would probably not place a bet on such a momentus event, given the words Jesus declared in Matthew 24:36, “But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father.”
Over the course of 2025, approximately $3.3 million was wagered on the curiously titled market “Will Jesus Christ Return in 2025?” according to Bloomberg News. The vast majority backed “No,” while a smaller but persistent group of believers kept the implied probability of His return hovering above 3% through much of the spring.
Those who placed early “No” bets in April, when speculation peaked, earned an annualized return of about 5.5% (before fees) — outperforming the safety of U.S. Treasury bills, according to calculations cited in the Bloomberg report.
Polymarket, along with rival platform Kalshi, has gained attention for offering odds on everything from elections to global conflicts by harnessing the “wisdom of crowds.” Yet amid the serious contracts, lighter and more sensational markets abound — from the box-office performance of movies to the frequency of Elon Musk’s tweets.
The Jesus market drew particular comment. Some users speculated it might serve as a tax-loss harvesting scheme, while others called it “the dumbest market I’ve ever seen.”
Interestingly, placing earthly probabilities on divine matters is not new. Seventeenth-century mathematician Blaise Pascal famously formulated “Pascal’s Wager,” arguing that the infinite payoff of believing in God outweighs any finite cost of faith — a rational case for Christianity that continues to influence thinkers today.
Throughout history, Christians have lived in expectant hope of Christ’s return, yet many sects and individuals have mistakenly tried to pinpoint the date — only to be humbled when the prophesied moment passed. Scripture repeatedly warns against such speculation, urging believers instead to live in a continual state of readiness.
Polymarket’s contract left the resolution criteria somewhat vague — relying on “a consensus of credible sources” — but on New Year’s Day, the platform swiftly declared victory for the “No” side.
Attention has already shifted to a new market: Will Jesus return by the end of 2026? Current odds give it just a 2% chance, offering potential winnings of more than 5,700% for a “Yes” bet.
John Holden, associate professor of business law and ethics at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business, noted that long-shot wagers attract participants much like lottery tickets do, despite the astronomical odds.
For followers of Christ, however, the return of Jesus is not a gamble but a glorious promise. As Revelation 22:20 records the Lord’s own words: “Surely I am coming soon.” The proper response is not speculation or wagering, but faithful watching, prayer, and living lives that honor Him until that day arrives.
